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November 9 Nicole will become a hurricane today: landfall in Florida and northward track

November 9, 2022

Wednesday morning update

Tropical Storm Nicole continues to strengthen as it moves west. This morning winds were 70 mph and it is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane as it crosses the northern Bahamas. Landing on Florida will be after midnight, then we’ll follow it across the state and heading (our way) north.

The focus of this article will be on the hurricane’s expected landfall and then the impact for the mid-Atlantic.

Morning surface weather

Tropical Storm Nicole has winds of 70 mph and is heading west toward Florida. The high pressure is controlling the mid Atlantic (for now) and the next storm in the northern plains is the pattern shift which has guiding winds ahead of it. This is what will guide Nicole to head north.

Tropical Storm Nicole Satellite Loop

Satellite of November 9 Tropical Storm Nicole

4:00 a.m. EST report

The National Hurricane Center expects a transition to a full tropical storm today.

PITCH…26.6N 75.7W

  • APPROXIMATELY 90 MI…140 KM E FROM GRAND ABACO ISLAND
  • APPROXIMATELY 270 MI…435 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
  • CURRENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

Forecast tracking across Florida

See warnings below

Watches and Warnings

A hurricane warning is in effect for…

  • The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island in the northwest of the Bahamas
  • Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

  • Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera in the northwest Bahamas
  • From Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
  • Flagler / Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
  • North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
  • Lake Okeechobee

A hurricane watch is in effect for…

  • Hallandale Beach in Boca Raton Florida
  • Lake Okeechobee

A tropical storm watch has been in effect for…

  • South of Hallandale Beach to North of Ocean Reef Florida

storm surge

A storm surge warning is in effect for…

  • North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
  • Mouth of the St. Johns River at Georgetown Florida

A storm surge watch is in effect for…

  • South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
  • Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
  • Anclote River Florida at Indian Pass Florida

Predictive Animation – ECMWF Model

7:00 p.m. Wed to 10:00 a.m. Sat

I believe that the European model has the best control on this subject. Local look below…

November 9 Nicole forecast ecmwf east coast

Wider view track for Nicole

Nicole will weaken into a Tropical Depression inland, with the Core Low moving near Baltimore. Take a closer look at the mid-Atlantic rainfall below.

Local weather today

Afternoon temperatures

It will be much cooler than yesterday

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 9

Normal low in Baltimore: 39ºF

Record 24ºF in 2019

SNOW: Trace in 2007

Normal high in Baltimore: 60°F

Record 78ºF 1994

Average temperatures trending cooler

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Thursday Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Warmer but higher clouds will begin to fill the sky ahead of Nicole.

In the future for Nicole

4am ECMWF pattern Friday to 10am Saturday

It will be a quick mover. Heavy rain will fall on Friday, with perhaps a lull in the evening, then a final push with the Core Low early on Saturday.

The rest of Saturday will clear up and remain mild.

Precipitation forecast

It went down a bit just due to the faster speed of the storm… coming out earlier.

We can always search between 1-2 inches from central Maryland to the west. Higher in some places.

Less rain around the bay, through Delmarva, towards the beaches.

7-day forecast

Heavy rain from Friday to Saturday morning, then much colder air will follow.

This pattern can bring snow to western Maryland by Sunday and Monday.

NEW: NOAA’s November outlook map showed this for the first time

The Great Cool to Mid-November: NOAA’s Outlook Does It for the First Time

See also: Winter Perspectives Series:

NOAA’s 2023 Winter Outlook Very Different From Farmers’ Almanacs

SEE ALSO THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter 2023 outlook First look at the snow from two Farmer’s Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter 2023 Outlook La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

WINTER CONNECTION?

If you want a snowy winter, that’s what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might see a lot of commercial snow removal going out this winter).

August record for unnamed tropical storms: Take a closer look at the snow that follows

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Woolly bear caterpillar winter weather outlook

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Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds and Snow Folklore

Click to see the Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 and More Nature’s Outlook Signals for Cold and Snow

Normals and Records: Climate History of Maryland and Baltimore

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